The Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) said in a statement yesterday it estimates that Macau’s sea level in the period from 2081 to 2100 will increase by 0.64 metres compared to the average level from 1995 to 2014.
According to the statement, Macau’s observatory has made projections of the city’s climate situation for the middle and the end of this century based on the latest models developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an intergovernmental body of the United Nations (UN).
The statement said that based on the models laid out by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the bureau estimates that Macau’s overall temperature will continue to rise between the middle and the end of this century, during which the city will also be affected by very hot weather more often.
During the period, the statement said, Macau’s overall rainfall and sea level are also estimated to increase.
The statement said that the bureau’s projections indicate that regardless of a scenario of intermediate global emissions of greenhouse gases or a scenario of very high global emissions, Macau’s overall rainfall will increase between the middle and the end of this century, during which the city will also be affected by extreme rainstorms more often.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report lays out five possible scenarios of global emissions of greenhouse gases, namely very low, low, intermediate, high and very high.
The SMG statement said that in the intermediate emission scenario, Macau’s annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation in the middle of this century (from 2041 to 2060) is estimated to increase by 8.3 percent and 5.8 percent respectively compared to the average level from 1995 to 2014.
In the very high emission scenario, the statement said, Macau’s annual maximum daily precipitation at the end of this century (from 2081 to 2100) is estimated to increase by around 30 percent compared to the average level from 1995 to 2014, indicating a significantly increased frequency of the occurrence of extreme rainstorms.
In addition, the statement said, the bureau’s projections indicate that regardless of which emission scenarios, Macau’s sea level will increase between the middle and the end of this century.
The statement said that in the intermediate emission scenario, Macau’s sea level is projected to increase by 0.31 metres at the middle of this century (from 2041 to 2060) and by 0.64 metres at the end of this century (from 2081 to 2100) compared to the average level from 1995 to 2014.
The statement said that with the projected increase in its sea level, Macau can expect to be affected by astronomical tides and storm surges more often.
The statement pointed out that the findings are merely the bureau’s projections of Macau’s long-term average climate situation for different periods of this century based on different scenarios of global emissions of greenhouse gases, rather than short-term weather forecast. Consequently, the city’s real climate situation between the middle and the end of this century will be subject to great uncertainty, the statement said.
However, the statement said that with global warming intensifying, various places in the world have already been affected by an increased frequency of extreme weather. Consequently, the statement said, Macau can expect to be affected by very hot weather and extreme rainstorms more often, as well as an increased sea level, between the middle and the end of this century.
This file photo taken from Small Taipa Hill in 2021 shows Macau’s coastal waters. – Photo: Tony Wong
