Commentary by Cheng Xianyue*
When discussing Macao’s development over the next five years, it is easy to fall into a familiar line of thinking: after the era of gaming, what will become the city’s next growth engine? Will it be healthcare and traditional Chinese medicine, modern finance, high technology, or culture and exhibition industries? And what role will Hengqin play in this transformation?
However, when the national 15th Five-Year Plan and Macao’s Third Five-Year Development Plan for Economic and Social Development (2026–2030) are examined together, the real question is not simply what will replace gaming, but whether Macao can preserve its existing strengths and openness while building a more stable, resilient and sustainable model of prosperity.
The national 15th Five-Year Plan supports Macao’s appropriate economic diversification by strengthening sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine and healthcare, distinctive financial services, high technology, exhibitions and trade. It also calls for deeper Hengqin-Macao integration, including the development of the Macao International Airport Hengqin Upstream Cargo Terminal, the Macao-Hengqin International Education (University) Town, and support for Macao universities to expand their operations in Hengqin. Macao’s Third Five-Year Development Plan further advances the “1+4” diversification strategy through major projects and government-guided funds.
Together, these initiatives form a clear policy pathway: the national plan defines Macao’s strategic direction, Macao’s own plan sets out implementation measures, and Hengqin provides the platform to turn these ambitions into reality.
Why is Hengqin so important?
The reason lies first in Macao’s long-standing spatial constraints. Industrial transformation, research and innovation, talent attraction and urban development have all been shaped by limited land resources. Under such conditions, even promising industries may struggle to move from individual projects to industrial clusters, or from research achievements to large-scale commercial applications.
Hengqin therefore represents more than an expansion of physical space. It enables Macao to extend certain urban and industrial functions beyond its traditional boundaries and creates new opportunities for regional collaboration.
The Macao-Hengqin International Education (University) Town is a prime example. According to current plans, the first phase of operations will begin in 2026, the University of Macau’s Hengqin campus is expected to enter trial operation in 2028, and the main construction of the Hengqin campuses of Macao Polytechnic University (MPU) and Macao University of Tourism (UTM) is expected to be largely completed by 2030.
Its significance goes far beyond adding new educational facilities. If universities can become the foundation for a broader ecosystem involving laboratories, technology transfer platforms, start-ups, industry funds, professional services and talent communities, the project could become Macao’s first large-scale knowledge-based industrial cluster.
The Macao International Airport Hengqin Upstream Cargo Terminal represents another important step. The plan proposes launching operations in the first half of 2027 and ultimately achieving an annual cargo-handling capacity of 300,000 tonnes. If successfully implemented, the project would not only increase cargo throughput at Macau International Airport, but also extend Macao’s role as an international gateway by connecting it with the broader industrial hinterland of the western Pearl River region.
In this sense, it is helping Macao establish a new development structure: leveraging the national market and regional economic depth to strengthen industrial foundations, using Hengqin as a platform for industrial growth, and relying on Macao’s institutional advantages and international connections to link with global resources.
This also provides a new perspective on the meaning of “appropriate economic diversification.”
Diversification does not mean that the gaming industry should simply become smaller, nor does it mean adding industries for the sake of numbers. A strong leading industry is not inherently a weakness. The real concern is whether government revenue, employment, investment, consumption and visitor flows become excessively tied to the same economic cycle.
From the perspective of risk-adjusted returns in finance, combined with the concept of urban resilience, the quality of Maca’s future development should not be measured only by how much growth it can generate during normal periods. It should also be assessed by how much risk exposure underlies that growth, and whether the city has sufficient buffers and alternative pathways when external shocks occur.
From this perspective, the value of healthcare and traditional Chinese medicine, modern finance, high technology, exhibitions, trade, culture and sports industries lies not only in their potential economic output, but also in their ability to create different sources of demand, capital, employment and growth cycles.
A healthier Macao economy should resemble a well-diversified investment portfolio: maintaining its existing strengths while continuously adding new sources of growth that are less correlated with traditional industries.
However, diversification cannot be achieved simply by selecting priority industries. Every industry requires a complete ecosystem involving research, investment, talent, market access and industrial coordination. Weakness in any one link may leave an initiative at the project stage rather than allowing it to develop into a sustainable ecosystem.
Therefore, before market forces are fully mobilized, the government must focus on creating the necessary foundations: building platforms, establishing rules, developing infrastructure, attracting funds, cultivating talent and creating application scenarios. The goal is to reduce the fixed costs and institutional barriers faced by enterprises entering emerging industries.
Macao’s Third Five-Year Development Plan’s emphasis on government-guided funds, while simultaneously highlighting the decisive role of the market and the central role of enterprises, reflects a shift from “government-led industrial development” toward “government-enabled industrial ecosystems.”
In simple terms: the government builds the channels; the market drives the flow. The government creates the platform; enterprises create the value.
Beyond adding new industries, genuine diversification also requires stronger connections across the industrial chain.
Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) cannot become a true industry through research alone; without manufacturing capacity, regulatory approval and market channels, its commercial potential remains limited. Technology cannot become competitive enterprises through academic papers alone; without pilot-scale testing, financing and real-world applications, innovation struggles to reach the market. Modern finance risks becoming confined to licenses and concepts if it is disconnected from real industries and cross-border capital needs. Likewise, Macao’s China–Portuguese-speaking Countries platform must go beyond conferences and exchanges by developing practical capabilities in overseas expansion, legal services, finance, arbitration, logistics, and market support.
The ultimate measure of diversification is therefore not simply how many industries are introduced, but whether Macao can build complete value chains from research and development to commercialization and market application.
Structural transformation inevitably brings challenges. New industries require new skills; technology reshapes employment patterns; and deeper Macao-Hengqin integration changes some residents’ traditional ways of working and living. For this reason, employment, housing, elderly care, talent development and social protection should be viewed not as separate from economic transformation, but as essential foundations for its success.
By 2030, the success of this five-year plan should not only be judged by economic indicators. More importantly, it should be measured by whether young people have more diverse career opportunities beyond gaming and tourism; whether research achievements from Macao universities can be more efficiently transformed into enterprises and industries; whether technology and professional talent are willing to build their futures in Macao and Hengqin; whether companies that identify opportunities in Macao can find space, capital, talent and markets in Hengqin; and whether Macao can avoid a situation where a single shock affects the entire city.
If these questions gradually receive positive answers, Macao will have achieved more than the success of a five-year plan. It will have developed a more valuable capability: the ability to sustain long-term prosperity without relying on the miracle of any single industry.
*The author is a member of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
N.B. The Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies (全国港澳研究会) is a national non-governmental academic organization, established on December 6, 2013, in Beijing. It is registered with the Ministry of Civil Affairs and is supervised by the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council. Its purpose is to co-ordinate research on the “One Country, Two Systems” theory and practice; promote academic exchanges among Hong Kong, Macao, and the mainland; and serve as a non-governmental think tank. -DeepSeek
