Commentary by Xinhua writer Zhang Zhongkai
BEIJING – There has been much discussion and concern over the growth momentum of the Chinese economy, but judging a country’s economic outlook entails a proper perspective to look beyond short-term jitters.
After a robust first-quarter performance, the economy has faced downward pressure amid growing global uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand. But will this necessarily mean the world’s second-largest economy would falter or even run out of steam?
For one thing, it’s totally unjustified to make such a conclusion.
It’s reasonable to see a post-pandemic economic recovery with twists and turns. From a global perspective, what China has gone through is nothing to fuss about, as it generally takes about one year for a country to see a solid comeback in consumption.
For another, those ingrained in negative thinking tend to overstate the challenges facing China, and neglect or downplay the Chinese economy’s potential, resilience and ability to navigate complex waters.
As the world’s largest developing country, China still has much room for economic expansion.
The country’s ongoing industrial upgrading and urbanization, as well as continuous capital accumulation, determine a relatively high potential GDP growth rate, which some market watchers estimate to be between 5 percent and 6 percent. China’s economic growth is expected to return to the potential rate range.
With over 400 million middle-income people, China is home to the world’s most promising consumer market. It’s the only country on earth with all the industrial categories listed in the UN industrial classification, and the list of China’s advantageous economic endowments goes on.
The Chinese government’s role should also not be underestimated. Thanks to the roll-out of prompt and well-thought-out measures, China has weathered financial turmoils in 1998 and 2008. The country has built a good track record, and that bodes well for the effects of the latest pro-growth measures.
Positive changes are already taking place. China’s factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September, adding to an array of indicators like retail sales of consumer goods and value-added industrial output that suggest the economic growth steam is gathering. The Q3 economic data due to be released today may offer more relief despite some remaining headwinds.
Of course, the recovery isn’t likely to be a smooth journey, but it’s a safe bet that as time goes on, China will outlive its naysayers and remain an indispensable stabilizer of the global economy. Just have more confidence and patience in the Chinese economy. – Xinhua
