The University of Macau (UM) announced yesterday that its researchers forecast that Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 7.7 percent in 2025 considering that this year’s global economic outlook will face the risk of being affected by a downward trend due to the ongoing slowdown in the Chinese mainland’s economic growth as well as the uncertainty brought about by the possible major changes in various countries’ economic policies.
The public university announced the 2025 economic forecast in a statement yesterday. The university’s annual forecast for Macau’s economy is carried out by a research team consisting of economists from its Department of Economics. The GDP forecast project is administered by the university’s Centre for Macau Studies (CMS).
The statement noted that after Macau enjoyed a strong recovery in the number of visitor arrivals in the first quarter of 2024 when it recorded a large year-on-year growth of 79.4 percent, the second quarter’s recovery slowed down when the number only increased 17.1 percent year-on-year. Afterwards, the statement noted, the year-on-year growth in the number of visitor arrivals in the third quarter continued to slow down to just 11.1 percent.
The statement underlined that due to the slowdown in the year-on-year growth in the number of visitor arrivals, Macau’s exports of services in the third quarter of 2024 only increased by 1.3 percent year-on-year in real terms to 72 billion patacas (2022 price level), in which visitors’ gaming expenditure rose by 11.2 percent year-on-year in real terms to 42.9 billion patacas, but visitors’ non-gaming expenditure dropped by 14.5 percent year-on-year in real terms to 20.1 billion patacas.
The UM statement pointed out that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast in October last year that the global economy is expected to grow 3.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025, indicating that the global economic growth is expected to remain stable.
However, the statement said that with the uncertainty brought about by the possible major changes in various countries’ economic policies, the 2025 global economic outlook will face a risk of being affected by a downward trend. The statement noted that the US economy is expected to grow 2.8 percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025, while the euro area’s GDP is expected to rise 0.8 percent in 2024 and 1.2 percent in 2025.
The statement also said that affected by the negative impact of its structural change and the weak expectation of its economic growth prospects, the Chinese mainland’s economic growth has slowed down, with its GDP year-on-year growth of just 4.6 percent in the third quarter of 2024.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Chinese mainland’s GDP grew 5.3 percent, 4.7 percent and 4.6 percent year-on-year in real terms in the first, second and third quarters of 2024. In the first three quarters, the mainland’s GDP grew 4.8 percent year-on-year in real terms.
The statement said that the Chinese mainland’s economic growth prospects would possibly face greater uncertainty this year due to the possibly increasing trade frictions between China and the US.
The statement acknowledged the central government’s ongoing efforts to boost private consumption and investment by implementing stronger fiscal and monetary policies.
The statement also noted that the current global political and economic landscape has also slowed down the economic growth of Hong Kong, another major services export market for Macau.
The statement underlined that Macau’s 2025 economic growth prospects are subject to various “unstable” factors, both domestically and internationally, because of which the research team forecasts that Macau’s GDP will grow 7.7 percent this year.
Visitors and other border crossers arrive in Macau from Zhuhai via the Barrier Gate border checkpoint last month. – Photo: Tony Wong
