Commentary by Francisco José Leandro*
August 2026
More than three decades ago, I had the privilege of working within the United Nations during the tenure of Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali. It was an experience that profoundly shaped my understanding of global governance, diplomacy, and the complexities of international cooperation. From those years, I remember not only the immense scale and diversity of the UN's work, but also its unique significance for millions of people around the world. For many, the United Nations remains the last glimmer of hope in times of conflict, humanitarian catastrophe, or political paralysis. Yet I also learned an enduring lesson: the UN is only as effective as its Member States allow it to be.
There is no other organization quite like the United Nations. As António Guterres prepares to conclude his second term on December 31, 2026, the world stands at a critical crossroads. The next Secretary-General, who will take office on January1, 2027 for a five-year term, will inherit what may be the most demanding leadership portfolio in the organization's history.
The challenges are staggering.
Profound image crisis
First, the UN faces a profound crisis of reputation and credibility. Many question its effectiveness in preventing wars, enforcing international law, and responding to geopolitical tensions. It is often criticized for the growing distance between its decision-making processes and the realities faced by people on the ground. Equally, many perceive the organization as lacking the authority and political leverage necessary to ensure that its resolutions and decisions are effectively implemented. As geopolitical rivalries intensify and divisions among major powers deepen, the gap between the UN's aspirations and its capacity to act has become increasingly visible, fuelling public scepticism about the organization's relevance and effectiveness in addressing the pressing challenges of our time.
Int’l order
Overburdened UNSC
Second, the post-1945 international order is under increasing strain. The UN Security Council, designed for a different era, struggles to reflect contemporary realities and urgently requires reform. Yet despite its shortcomings, the Security Council remains the world's most important mechanism for the maintenance of international peace and security. No other international body possesses its unique authority, legitimacy, and capacity to mobilize collective action in response to conflicts and threats to global stability. Reform should therefore not seek to weaken the Council, but rather to strengthen and modernize it. This includes expanding its membership to better reflect today's geopolitical realities, enhancing its representativeness and transparency, and improving its ability to act decisively in moments of crisis. Empowering the Security Council to respond more effectively to contemporary challenges will be essential if it is to preserve its central role as the cornerstone of the international peace and security architecture in the decades ahead.
China’s rise, Global South’s growing clout
Third, the rise of China and the growing influence of the Global South are reshaping global power dynamics. Institutions founded on Global North leadership must adapt to a more multipolar world. The geopolitical landscape of the twenty-first century differs profoundly from that of 1945, when the United Nations was created under the leadership of victorious Western powers at the end of the Second World War. Today, China has emerged as a major economic, technological, diplomatic, and strategic actor with global reach, while countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are increasingly demanding a greater voice in international governance. At the same time, the world is witnessing the relative decline of the only truly global hegemonic power of the post-Cold War era, the United States. Although the United States remains the world's foremost military, technological, and financial power, its ability to shape global outcomes unilaterally has diminished as alternative centres of influence gain prominence and nations pursue more autonomous foreign policies.
BRICS, South-South collaboration
This transformation is reflected in the growing relevance of organizations and platforms such as BRICS, the expansion of South-South cooperation, and the increasing willingness of developing countries to advocate for reforms to the institutions of global governance. The emergence of a more multipolar international order presents both opportunities and risks. On one hand, it offers the possibility of a more representative and inclusive system in which diverse voices and perspectives are better reflected. On the other, it risks intensifying geopolitical competition and fragmenting international cooperation at a moment when collective action is urgently needed.
The next Secretary-General will therefore face the delicate task of managing a historic redistribution of power while preserving the principles of multilateralism that underpin the United Nations. Success will require building bridges between established and emerging powers, fostering trust between the Global North and the Global South, and ensuring that the United Nations remains a credible platform for dialogue, cooperation, and consensus-building. The future legitimacy of the organization may well depend on its capacity to adapt to this new geopolitical reality without abandoning the universal values enshrined in its Charter. In many respects, the challenge is not simply to accommodate the rise of new powers, but to manage the transition from a predominantly Western-led international order to a genuinely global one.
Rapid AI growth
Fourth, the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies raises difficult questions regarding governance, ethics, security, and employment. Humanity is entering an era in which technological innovation is advancing faster than governments and international institutions can regulate it. AI is already transforming economies, labour markets, education, healthcare, and military capabilities, offering enormous opportunities while also creating significant risks. The spread of disinformation, the emergence of autonomous weapons systems, cyber threats, and the potential displacement of millions of jobs illustrate the scale of the challenge. At the same time, unequal access to technological innovation risks widening the gap between developed and developing countries. The next Secretary-General will need to promote international cooperation on AI governance, ensuring that technological progress remains guided by ethical principles, human rights, transparency, and inclusiveness. In an increasingly digital world, the ability of the United Nations to help shape global norms for emerging technologies may become as important as its historic role in advancing human rights, sustainable development, and international security.
Int’l law strains
Fifth, international public law faces unprecedented pressures as conflicts increasingly challenge established norms and institutions. For decades, international law has served as one of the central pillars of global stability, providing the legal framework through which states manage disputes, resolve conflicts, protect human rights, and promote cooperation. The principles enshrined in the UN Charter, respect for sovereignty, the peaceful settlement of disputes, and the prohibition of the use of force, have helped prevent countless confrontations from escalating into wider conflicts. Yet these foundations are increasingly being tested by geopolitical rivalries, regional wars, unilateral actions, and growing disagreements over the interpretation and application of international norms.
The credibility of international law depends not only on its existence but also on its consistent enforcement. When violations go unpunished or legal principles are applied selectively, confidence in the international system is weakened. At a time when armed conflicts, territorial disputes, cyberattacks, and transnational security threats are becoming more complex, the strengthening of international legal mechanisms is more important than ever. The next Secretary-General will face the difficult task of defending the integrity of international law while encouraging dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution among increasingly polarized actors. Preserving a rules-based international order is not simply a legal necessity; it is an essential condition for international peace, security, and sustainable global development in the twenty-first century.
Antarctica – last great global commons
Added to these are rising migration flows, persistent concerns over disarmament and arms control, climate change, hunger, environmental degradation, and widening inequalities. The next Secretary-General will also need to address the sustainability crisis facing humanity, from biodiversity loss to pollution and resource scarcity. Antarctica, often viewed as the planet's last great global commons, will become increasingly significant as discussions approach the 2048 review provisions of the Madrid Protocol. Importantly, neither the Antarctic Treaty nor the Protocol expires in 2048, but the review process is likely to intensify geopolitical competition and test international cooperation.
Beyond addressing these global challenges, the next Secretary-General must champion institutional reform. The United Nations needs to become more efficient, transparent, and responsive. Serious discussion is required regarding the enlargement of the Security Council to better represent contemporary geopolitical realities. Equally important is strengthening the relationship between the Secretary-General and the General Assembly, ensuring that the voices of all Member States, particularly smaller and developing nations, are more effectively reflected in global decision-making.
Female UNSG candidates
In this context, the possibility of electing the first woman Secretary-General carries profound symbolic and practical significance. In more than eighty years of UN history, no woman has ever occupied the organization's highest office. The 2026 selection process has brought several distinguished female candidates to the forefront, including Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Chile’s ex-president and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights; Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, current Secretary-General of UNCTAD; and María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, former president of the UN General Assembly.
Among them, Grynspan appears particularly well positioned. Her extensive experience in both national government and multilateral institutions, coupled with her strong focus on development, economic transformation, digital technologies, and UN reform, aligns closely with the challenges facing the organization. Bachelet's distinguished record in human rights and governance also makes her a formidable contender.
The question, however, is not merely whether the next Secretary-General should be a woman. Rather, it is whether the international community is prepared to empower a leader capable of restoring confidence in multilateralism at a moment of profound global uncertainty. The world's next Secretary-General, whether female or male, will inherit not only the toughest job in international diplomacy, but also the responsibility of helping to redefine the role of the United Nations for the twenty-first century. A woman at the helm would be historic. Effective leadership, however, will be indispensable.
End
* Associate Professor, University of Macau (UM)
N.B.: Minor edits to the unabridged article and subheadings by the Post
The flag of the United Nations flying on the opening day of 65th general debate of the General Assembly in New York City on September 23, 2010. The UN emblem and flag speak to the hopes and dreams of peace and unity for people the world over. - UN Photo/Mark Garten
