Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.3 percent year on year in real terms to 99.78 billion patacas (US$12.49 billion) in the first quarter of this year, according to preliminary figures released by the Statistics and Census Bureau (DSEC) yesterday.
A DSEC statement attributed the decline to a relatively high comparison base in the same quarter last year, changes in visitor consumption patterns and other factors.
The special administrative region’s overall economic output corresponded to 85.2 percent of the level in the same period of pre-pandemic 2019, the statement noted.
Macau was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic between early 2020 and late 2022.
The statement pointed out that, following a strong recovery in 2023, Macau’s economy gradually stabilised last year, with its year-on-year real growth rate slowing from 23.0 percent in the first quarter to 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter.
Despite an 11.1 percent increase in visitor arrivals, total exports of services decreased by 3.8 percent year-on-year in real terms in the first three months of this year, owing to a decline in exports of other tourism services resulting from changes in visitor consumption patterns, the statement – without elaborating on the changes.
As regards domestic demand, according to the statement, the main components remained relatively stable, with gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)*, government final consumption expenditure and private consumption expenditure rising by 7.8 percent, 1.0 percent and 0.6 percent year on year respectively.
“Since the beginning of this year, the global environment has been marked by volatility and challenges, with subdued growth momentum for the world economy and increasing uncertainties in China-US relations.
“Rapid shifts in visitor consumption patterns, preferences, and demographics have weakened spending sentiment among visitors to Macau.
“The decline in visitor expenditure has exerted pressure on the local tourism industry, contributing to fluctuations in Macau’s economic recovery in the first quarter of the year.
“Nevertheless, Macau’s economy has maintained an overall recovery trend, with stable public finances and a positive outlook.
“On the whole, barring major changes in external and internal conditions, Macau is unlikely to face a cyclical economic downturn and is expected to sustain its recovery momentum,” the statement said.
The statement also said that starting from the reference period of the first quarter of this year, the bureau is releasing preliminary GDP figures about 30 days after the end of the respective quarter, publishing the revised figures later on, to provide more timely GDP data to the public.
Detailed results of the revised GDP for the first quarter of 2025 will be released on May 16, 2025, according to the statement.
* Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is defined as the acquisition of produced assets (including purchases of second-hand assets), including the production of such assets by producers for their own use, minus disposals. – OECD
